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SIA slashes IC outlook for '08, '09, '10
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Like most others, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) has reduced its IC forecast and projected the first decline in sales since 2001.
The new forecast projects IC sales of $261.2 billion in 2008, a 2.2 percent increase from $255.6 billion in 2007, according to the SIA. (See tables below.)
SIA projects that IC sales will decline by 5.6 percent to $246.7 billion in 2009, before resuming growth in 2010. Sales will grow by 7.4 percent in 2010 to $264.9 billion and by 7.5 percent in 2011 to $284.7 billion.
In June, the industry body trimmed its 2008 sales projection down to a 4.3 percent increase from 7.7 percent or higher, citing weakness in the DRAM and flash memory market.
The SIA in June also said it expected the semiconductor market would grow more than 6 percents in 2009, to $283.2 billion and rise an even stronger 8.4 percent in 2010 to $307 billion and jump to $324.1 billion in 2011, up 6 percent from the prior year.
SIA's new forecast was somewhat expected, as the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) group also cut its forecast. The SIA somewhat bases its forecast on the WSTS.
''The current global economic turmoil is clearly having a significant impact on semiconductor sales,'' said SIA President George Scalise, in a statement. ''The fortunes of the semiconductor industry are increasingly tied to consumer spending on electronic products. Consumer purchases now drive well over half of worldwide semiconductor sales.''
The picture is gloomy. Sales in the current quarter, historically a strong quarter for the IC industry, are forecasted to decline by 5.9 percent from the prior quarter.
''The September sales figures provided the first sign of a slowdown in semiconductor sales,'' Scalise said. ''Indications are that both consumer and corporate spending on technology will decline in 2009. Visibility is very limited, and much will depend on how quickly public policy makers can act to restore consumer confidence.''
SIA cited a recent Deutsche Bank report which estimates personal computer unit sales will decline by 5 percent and cell phone unit sales will decline by 6.4 percent in 2009, with declining sales across all geographic regions. PCs and cell phones together account for approximately 60 percent of worldwide semiconductor consumption.
The forecast projects growth in all regional markets through 2011. The Asia-Pacific region will continue to be the fastest-growing region, growing from 50.7 percent of global chip sales in 2008 to 52.9 percent in 2011.
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WSTS cuts IC forecast for '08, '09, '10
SIA cuts 2008 sales forecasts, projects future expansion
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